Analysis: Political Science

Political Campaign Analysis
By Anthony Rosario-Licerio

Anthony Licerio for Vancouver School Board Director, Position 1 (2017.)

I was on a train headed to Seattle for Wellstone training (RE:Power,) when the decision to run and file was made. My goal for this campaign: open discussions surrounding the problems plaguing Black, Brown and Indigenous communities (poverty, school to prison pipeline, underfunded schools, the list is truly endless–the system is broken.) A $30.00 t-shirt, and data points made this 20-year incumbent work (he would resign June 2020, after racially charged social media posts.)

Target Audience: 44.2% Black and Other People of Color (2019-2020,) under represented families and students (23,457 enrolled students.)*

  • Indigenous/Native: 0.4%
  • Asian: 3.2%
  • Black/African: 2.8%
  • Hispanic/Latino: 27.3%
  • Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander: 2.3%
  • Two or More Races: 8.5%
  • White (& MENA): 55.5%

*White (educators): 70% (1,330 class-room educators)

Strategy: Guerrilla Marketing, School Directors in Washington state are elected volunteers from the community. My campaign relied on two truths, showing up can win you an election, and you don’t need to spend money on media; an estimated $100 was spent during the campaign on time & travel.

I had a graphic tee printed, which read A Mother Was Deported Yesterday and wore the t-shirt during an interview with The Columbian. Echoing the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP) message, A Man was Lynched Yesterday used to highlight the frequency of Black men being lynched between 1920-1938.

My intention was to open conversation about the problem and disruption of deportation on immigrant families. Specifically the 27.3% Hispanic/Latino student population. My campaign planks and the message of my t-shirt earned the endorsement of The League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC.)

Vote Count: Primary 2,190 (me) : 16,620 (field,) General: 5,317 (me) : 25,700 (field.)

Rob Frisina for State House (2016)

Target Audience: Disenfranchised voters reengaged by the Bernie Sanders presidential campaign

Strategy: Political Campaign Science uses a formula of $1 (the cost of a leaflet,) multiplied by the Win Total to determine the budget of a campaign. The General Election for this election cycle had 59,137 people vote, with the winner receiving 30,552 votes.

Political campaigns also rely heavy on Out of Home (OOH) to carry campaigns (leaflets, postcards, and yard signs.) Frisina’s Grassroots campaign did not have the capital of other campaigns, spending the campaign’s budget on an OOH strategy and merchandise.

My partner Mitchell Larson and I, put together a video compilation of footage from the campaign, and laid over Frisina’s stump speech, we ran the advert midway through the Primary cycle and boosted the video in the final days.

The campaign finished 3rd, receiving 1,716 votes, reflective of what I believe to be the campaign’s Social Media reach. In hindsight, I believe the campaign should have gone all-in on Social Media to promote the campaign. See Video.

Learning Outcomes:

  • Social Media is a powerful tool for grassroots candidates, allowing candidates to allocate resources elsewhere — Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, Snapchat are different platforms, with different audiences.
  • 5-minute videos are too long, and should have been embedded into the Facebook post.

Political Science: Five Political Science truths learned from holding roles as a Campaign Manager, Field Strategist, and Canvasser.

  1. You can apply advertising science and strategy to a political campaign
  2. $1 x win total = campaign budget
  3. Merchandise is a mechanism to raise capital for your campaign (bumper stickers, buttons, t-shirts, yard signs, et al.)
  4. Psycho-loyalists will ignite the wild fire
  5. Women are more likely to vote than Men

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